Public sentiment regarding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is highly polarized, with a significant emphasis on the humanitarian impact of the violence. Many commenters express frustration over the loss of innocent lives and criticize political leaders for perpetuating the conflict, while also highlighting perceived media biases. There are calls for peace and recognition of civilian casualties on both sides, alongside deep concerns about regional instability and the effectiveness of Hezbollah amidst their setbacks. The discourse showcases a complex interplay of historical grievances, empathy for victims, and skepticism towards military actions.

Israel

Hezbollah

International Community

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&gt; # [Hezbollah weighs scaling back its arsenal in wake of Israel conflict](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/7NS33AWBFBLL7HPCPVOCATBVVM.jpg?auth=7b6986e5e5a50fc2b4955aa8ad634fe8ef02226fea2a92d159d67ef2672c12ff&amp;height=1005&amp;width=1920&amp;quality=80&amp;smart=true)
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt; * Summary
&gt;   
&gt; * Hezbollah undertakes strategic review, considers giving up more weapons, sources say
&gt; * Israeli strikes, financial squeeze add to pressures on group
&gt; * Keeping part of its arsenal could fuel tensions with Lebanese rivals
&gt; * Hezbollah retains support of key constituents despite war losses
&gt;   
&gt; BEIRUT, July 4 (Reuters) - Hezbollah has begun a major strategic review in the wake of its devastating war with Israel, including considering scaling back its role as an armed movement without disarming completely, three sources familiar with the deliberations say.
&gt;   
&gt; The internal discussions, which aren't yet finalised and haven't previously been reported, reflect the formidable pressures the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group has faced since a truce was reached in late November.
&gt;   
&gt; Sign up  [here.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/under-pressure-hezbollah-weighs-scaling-back-its-arsenal-2025-07-04/undefined?location=article-paragraph&amp;redirectUrl=%2Fworld%2Fmiddle-east%2Funder-pressure-hezbollah-weighs-scaling-back-its-arsenal-2025-07-04%2F)
&gt;   
&gt; Israeli forces continue to strike areas where the group holds sway, accusing Hezbollah of ceasefire violations, which it denies. It is also grappling with acute financial strains, [U.S. demands](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-drafts-reply-us-demand-hezbollah-disarm-sources-say-2025-07-01/) for its disarmament and diminished political clout since a new cabinet took office in February with U.S. support.
&gt;   
&gt; The group's difficulties have been compounded by seismic shifts in the regional power balance since Israel decimated its command, killed thousands of its fighters and destroyed much of its arsenal last year.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was toppled in December, severing a key arms supply line from Iran. Tehran is now emerging from its own bruising [war with Israel](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-sees-peace-talks-expanding-after-war-with-iran-2025-06-26/), raising doubts over how much aid it can offer, a regional security source and a senior Lebanese official told Reuters.
&gt;   
&gt; Another senior official, who is familiar with Hezbollah's internal deliberations, said the group had been holding clandestine discussions on its next steps. Small committees have been meeting in person or remotely to discuss issues including its leadership structure, political role, social and development work, and weapons, the official said on condition of anonymity.
&gt;   
&gt; The official and two other sources familiar with the discussions indicated Hezbollah has concluded that the arsenal it had amassed to deter Israel from attacking Lebanon had become a liability.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezollah "had an excess of power," the official said. "All that strength turned into a weak point."
&gt;   
&gt; Under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, who was [killed last year](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-nasrallah-has-led-hezbollah-become-regional-force-2024-09-27/), Hezbollah grew into a regional military player with tens of thousands of fighters, rockets and drones poised to strike Israel. It also provided support to allies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
&gt;   
&gt; Israel came to regard Hezbollah as a significant threat. When the group opened fire in solidarity with its [Palestinian ally Hamas](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/battling-survive-hamas-faces-defiant-clans-doubts-over-iran-2025-06-27/) at the start of the Gaza war in 2023, Israel responded with airstrikes in Lebanon that escalated into a ground offensive.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah has since relinquished a number of weapons depots in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese armed forces as stipulated in last year's truce, though Israel says it has struck military infrastructure there still linked to the group.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah is now considering turning over some weapons it has elsewhere in the country - notably missiles and drones seen as the biggest threat to Israel - on condition Israel withdraws from the south and halts its attacks, the sources said.
&gt;   
&gt; But the group won't surrender its entire arsenal, the sources said. For example, it intends to keep lighter arms and anti-tank missiles, they said, describing them as a means to resist any future attacks.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's media office did not respond to questions for this article.
&gt;   
&gt; Isreal's military said it would continue operating along its northern border in accordance with the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, in order eliminate any threat and protect Israeli citizens. The U.S. State Department declined to comment on private diplomatic conversations, referring questions to Lebanon's government. Lebanon's presidency did not respond to questions.
&gt;   
&gt; For Hezbollah to preserve any military capabilities would fall short of Israeli and U.S. ambitions. Under the terms of the ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and France, Lebanon's armed forces were to confiscate "all unauthorized arms", beginning in the area south of the Litani River - the zone closest to Israel.
&gt;   
&gt; Lebanon's government also wants Hezbollah to surrender the rest of its weapons as it works to establish a state monopoly on arms. Failure to do so could stir tensions with the group's Lebanese rivals, which accuse Hezbollah of leveraging its military might to impose its will in state affairs and repeatedly dragging Lebanon into conflicts.
&gt;   
&gt; All sides have said they remain committed to the ceasefire, even as they traded [accusations of violations](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-israeli-strikes-point-precarious-ceasefire-2025-03-18/).
&gt;   
&gt; PART OF HEZBOLLAH'S 'DNA'
&gt; - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - --
&gt;   
&gt; Arms have been central to Hezbollah's doctrine since it was founded by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to fight Israeli forces who invaded Lebanon in 1982, at the height of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war. Tensions over the Shi'ite Muslim group's arsenal sparked another, brief civil conflict in 2008.
&gt;   
&gt; The United States and Israel deem Hezbollah a terrorist group.
&gt;   
&gt; Nicholas Blanford, who wrote a history of Hezbollah, said that in order to reconstitute itself, the group would have to justify its retention of weapons in an increasingly hostile political landscape, while addressing [damaging intelligence breaches](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/HEZBOLLAH-PAGERS/mopawkkwjpa/) and ensuring its long-term finances.
&gt;   
&gt; "They've faced challenges before, but not this number simultaneously," said Blanford, a fellow with the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank.
&gt;   
&gt; A European official familiar with intelligence assessments said there was a lot of brainstorming underway within Hezbollah about its future but no clear outcomes. The official described Hezbollah's status as an armed group as part of its DNA, saying it would be difficult for it to become a purely political party.
&gt;   
&gt; Nearly a dozen sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said the group wants to keep some arms, not only in case of future threats from Israel, but also because it is worried that Sunni Muslim jihadists in neighbouring Syria might exploit lax security to attack eastern Lebanon, a Shi'ite-majority region.
&gt;   
&gt; Despite the catastrophic results of the latest war with Israel - tens of thousands of people were left homeless and swathes of the south and Beirut's southern suburbs were destroyed - many of Hezbollah's core supporters want it to remain armed.
&gt;   
&gt; Um Hussein, whose son died fighting for Hezbollah, cited the threat still posed by Israel and a history of conflict with Lebanese rivals as reasons to do so.
&gt;   
&gt; "Hezbollah is the backbone of the Shi'ites, even if it is weak now," she said, asking to be identified by a traditional nickname because members of her family still belong to Hezbollah. "We were a weak, poor group. Nobody spoke up for us."
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's immediate priority is tending to the needs of constituents who bore the brunt of the war, the sources familiar with its deliberations said.
&gt;   
&gt; In December, Secretary General Naim Qassem said Hezbollah had paid more than $50 million to affected families with more than $25 million still to hand out. But there are signs that its funds are running short.
&gt;   
&gt; One Beirut resident said he had paid for repairs to his apartment in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs after it was damaged in the war only to see the entire block destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in June.
&gt;
&gt; ***(continues in next comment)***

empleadoEstatalBot

This, along with the possible ceasefire deal pending its starting to look like total Israeli victory.

fullkaretas

So weird how this was downvoted into oblivion so fast. Hmmmmmmmmmm

....................................................................................................................................................................................

Own_Thing_4364

Makes sense. If they don’t want to keep getting killed and keep getting bombed, generally not being in Israel’s crosshairs as much as they can, they’d want to make themselves less of a threat to Israel. Stop making them mad, they’ll leave you alone.

Minimum-Enthusiasm14

This article sounds more optimistic than I'd be. Israel may be fine, but I have a suspicion that Lebanon is playing with fire here. Hezbollah isn't gonna allow the Lebanese state to dismantle it, and as much as it may feel assertive rn, the Lebanese govt. is extremely weak and its army little more than a police force. Lebanon knows civil war intimately, don't tempt fate for having another one.

BendicantMias

Tactical victories are nice, but strategic victories are far, far more valuable. This ceasefire deal with a stronger Lebanese state and structural weakening of Hezbollah through the secondary effect of Assad's regime falling looks much much more like a strategic victory in the making.

Lovely. A Lebanon that is freed from the shackles of Hezbollah and Iran is better for them and for Israel as well. 

I mean, whatever Lebanon wants to do in terms of their foreign policy, it should be the decision by a government that ultimately answers to the Lebanese population instead of being a decision made by the Supreme Leader of Iran.

zapreon

&gt; Hezbollah is now considering turning over some weapons it has elsewhere in the country - notably missiles and drones seen as the biggest threat to Israel - *on condition Israel withdraws from the south and halts its attacks, the sources said.*

Considering Israel has stated its forces will remain in Lebanese territory until Hezbollah pulls out of Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah says it won’t pull out and disarm until Israel withdraws from Lebanon, it would like we’re looking at another situation like Resolution 1701 where neither side is gonna budge. 

If Israel remains, it’ll probably strengthen Hezbollah’s position, but that’s a more long term consideration as currently Hezbollah isn’t in position to wage a serious war with Israel. Them and Iran screwed the pooch as far as acting as a unified front and now neither are in any position to make demands from Israel.

FerdinandTheGiant

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Sounds perfect. 
As long as there is proper enforcement.

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A modern state have the monopoly on violence. As long as Hezbollah still have any armed wing at all, then whatever truce or security deal made with the government of Lebanon is just wishful thinking. Don't complain about IAF paying visits if you can't get your house in order.

berahi

It's kind of astonishing how the Hezbollah/Iran front is the one where Israel has had the most success.

Honickm0nster

&gt;Nearly a dozen sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said the group wants to keep some arms, not only in case of future threats from Israel, but also because it is worried that Sunni Muslim jihadists in neighbouring Syria might exploit lax security to attack eastern Lebanon, a Shi'ite-majority region.

I find it fascinating that for the first time in its history, Hezbollah is not only worried about Israel, but now also Syria. I'm not sure a peace deal can be reached with Syria (especially after Jolani's latest demands) but I do think its realistic for both countries to reach a quiet understanding with one another on cutting off Hezbollah's arms supplies and weakening its foothold in Lebanon.

Throwthat84756

The IAF will be watching closely 🙏🙏

Sigma-9507

Beat them into submission. It’s the only way. 

[deleted]

gal_z

Because their weapons are mostly to threaten Lebanon,not Israel.

The desire to keep light and AT weaponry is one that allow them to continue to threaten a civil war and to secure their criminal operations (mostly drug trafficking).

mr_blue596

Several reasons for Hezbollah crumpling so fast.


A) years of infiltration work by Israel.  


    - Israel had fully infiltrated their telecommunications.  This is why Hezbollah opted for foot messengers, pagers, and walkie talkies (for all the good that that did unto them).
The pagers had been with Hezbollah for at least  five (5) years.


  - Hezbollah had lots of people in Lebanon &amp; Syria who hated their guts and would have been willing to provide info on them.  


   - Given Hezbollah had enough munitions/rockets/missiles to overwhelm / saturate Iron Dome, and do serious potential damage to Israeli infrastructure and potentially invade and grab Israeli civilians as hostages,, Israel had also set up agents to infiltrate Hezbollah's ranks.


  - Israeli Mossad agents infiltrated Iran's intelligence agencies to the point that the head of the Iranian anti-Mossad intelligence agency was a Mossad agent.  This was an intel bonanza as the Mossad agent there could get any details they wanted out of other Iranian agencies.  Iran actually publically stated that their anti-Mossad agent was an Israeli spy to inform everybody that he had interacted with that the spy had compromised them.  Iran paid and armed Hezbollah, so now Israel had all of Iran's info on Hezbollah.




B) Israeli strategy is to go after leadership and critical infrastructure.  The pagers and walkie talkies  had been in Hezbollah hands for years.  The theory of their use was that if Hezbollah would go attacking into Israel, each soldier (or at least commander) would go into battle with a walkie-talkie booby trapped with a heart-popping load of explosives strapped to their chest.  The pagers were a back up plan.  Hezbollah never did go into Israel en-masse, not even after Oct 7, but they did launch over 8000 rockets over nearly a year.  


When Hezbollah got close to discovering issues with the pagers Israel ran operation grim-beeper on them.  Since only commanders and upper level agents had them, the beeper strike severely disabled the people who would have served as battlefield coordinators and leaders.  The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was one of the people with the pagers.  Several people who had been in the room with Nasrallah were other people who had been carrying pagers.


C) The pager detonations and subsequent walkie talkie detonations did three things.  
  - crippled commanders and coordinators and demoralized Hezbollah leadership &amp; rank and file.  Had these people been killed outright, it would have been much less effective an attack.
  - left communications in shambles.  Nobody trusted electronic communications.  This left everybody disorganized and uncoordinated and forced to rely on foot runners.
- and now a runner was traced to Nasrallah.


Now Israel had finished their castration strikes they went after the leaders of Hezbollah in decapitation strikes.


With Israeli infiltration being so complete, anybody promoted from the ranks of Hezbollah had a high chance of being a potential Israeli agent, and at least 4000 promotions were needed after grim-beeper alone.  This made regrouping as an army impossible.


And thanks to Infiltration at low and high levels, they went after the equipment as well.  All of which decimated and discombobulated Hezbollah so badly that they were unable to protect their Syrian supply lines and back up Assad forces.  Without their Hezbollah backup fighters, the Syrian army then folded and fled from the rebels who drove out Assad.


This is my brief summary of the takedown of Hezbollah.

Ax_deimos

An investigation reveals how a cyberattack exploited soldiers' vulnerabilities and may have changed the course of the Syrian conflict Fuente: New Lines Magazine 

https://share.google/8HG1oiG5zOh1TbSax

RepulsiveOccasion505

Their communications network was completely penetrated by Israel. First their beepers then the backup radios started blowing up and leaving many of their fighters in the command structure either dead or missing a leg or hand.

Unable to react quickly to Israel’s opening moves the network was largely dismantled. Syria’s demise also helped since the resupply from Iran used Syria as a FOB.

Normal Finkelstein isn’t what I’d consider a good source for military analysis…

Jaded-Form-8236

Israel has been mapping weapons caches, tunnels, leadership, and safehouses for decades since the last war. Hezbollah was overconfident rarely being targeted and mostly left alone by Israel other than skirmishes. 

Israel immediately went after senior Hezbollah leadership and dismantled them from the top down. Even with 100,000 fighters and over 100,000 rockets, with nobody to lead them and experts to maintain the equipment most fighters will just blend back into their normal lives until the next Hezbollah operation.  

Israel had a crazy amount of intelligence on locations, routes, and more. Imagine how many years it took to get those pagers and walkie talkies sourced and distributed. 

You could say it was Hubris why it took Israel only months to dismantle Hezbollah compared to how long it has taken to dismantle Hamas. Hamas leadership has been much more careful in comparison

ip_man_2030

Its super simple. 

Hezbollah is another victim of western media not having ANY martial literacy. 

Western media sees militant group have success in conflict + militant group has decent numbers = dangerous, competent militant group. 

The reality is that Hezbollah was lead by a bunch of people who have never read ANY notable literature on war(On War, The Art of War, The Face of Battle etc etc) and have no formal education in warfare.

Hezbollah fighters might be decently competent, but Hezbollah as a war fighting organization has never had any success against another war fighting organization.

Its one of the major failings of western coverage or armed conflicts. Western media and journalists do not place any value in martial educations. They dont factor in education or training when talking about conflict.

DewinterCor

Don't they follow up with the exploding walkie talkies a couple days later  ?

howstu

I think the pager attack was a major blow, it didn't just removing hundreds of Hezbollah but it was a strong psychological blow. Also, the IDF used weapons that could destroy deep bunkers, this meant the leadership wasn't safe, Nasrallah was taken out even though he in his bunker under a building. I naively though they would be harder to crack, given they gained experience in the Syrian civil war, but this wasn't lightly armed militas they were fighting but a modern military.

Bbrhuft

A few reasons...

1. Hezbollah was never nearly as strong as the Iranians and Western media reported. Both of those parties had a vested interest in Israel be scared of fighting in Lebanon.

2. Hezbollah doesn't have the ability to trap their civilians and hide behind them like Hamas does. In Lebanon, Israel issued evacuation orders and nearly all the civilians immediately got out.

esreveReverse

&gt; Before this war, Hezbollah was supposedly one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East. 100,000 fighters, similar to Israel.

There is a lot of delusion in the popular press in the middle east about the relative strength of armies.  I don't understand it but it is a very very destructive tendency.  The USA experienced a similar thing with the Iraqi army before the first Iraq War. There was shock about what happens when a Middle Eastern army goes up against 600k USA troops plus another 300k mixed from allies.  Hezbollah was never remotely close to Israel.  

A sensible analysis would start with Lebanon's GDP is 1/25th the size of Israel's.  Israeli troops are man for man  better armed.  Of course Hezbollah would also lose and lose badly in an all-out confrontation. Part of the issue is that Western forces are generally fighting more limited engagements where the goal is to avoid severe political blowback and severe costs.   Moreover, when it comes to the Middle East there is always a desire to not damage oil production capacity.  I also think Islam may play a role here.  Unlike Christianity and Judaism, Allah promises his followers military victory.  Admitting that all the Muslim armies in the world are inferior by an order of magnitude to the Christian armies with the Arab armies less significant than Turkey, Pakistan.. may be theologically unacceptable and so rejected.

&gt; What happened? Was the pager thing such a psychological toll that Hezbollah fighters gave up? 

The pager thing severed communications.  Israel's willingness to bomb hard and fast.  Moreover Israel's willingness to decisely not protect Shias and isolate them from the rest of the population I think was an excellent strategy (though controversial).  I also think the 2006 War.   The Lebanese themselves, they had not wanted this war.  Hezbollah had assured them they weren't going to get Lebanon into a war.  When it happened, there wasn't support for Hezbollah there was rage at Hezbollah.  Similar to say Al Qaeda attacking New York.  Except when it is against Israeli targets, even Arab Muslims get that sort of attack is not resistance, that's provocation.

JeffB1517

&gt;Before this war, Hezbollah was supposedly one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East. 100,000 fighters, similar to Israel. It was the big, scary threat that the war in Gaza could supposedly escalate to

Because it was all propaganda. They were not the turban Napoleons that their press releases made them out to be. Israel could have assassinated Nasrallah earlier than this war, but they didn't.

HumbleEngineering315

Basically I think Hezbollah power was overestimated. Partially - honestly overestimated. Israel estimations of what Hezbollah  can do appears to be way to high. Naturally 100,000 fighters is complete nonce, newer been that much.   
You also should understand that military forces there is not like an army under central command. That a lot of local militia that called by assumed command to fight. But can come or not to come base on situation. And loosing party is not where you want to come. That is why some things changes so fast - people deciding "that party lost" - and leaving that side.

vovap_vovap

The answer: It didn't https://www.habtoorresearch.com/programmes/hezbollah-future-lebanon/

IamtheWalrus-gjoob

Hez had its own internal enemies in Leb, they weren’t loved there, only feared.  When Israel killed Hez leadership and fighters it altered the balance of power in Leb.

jimbo2128

There's no reason to think that Hezbollah has been defeated, it's just useful for everyone to pretend that it has. Hezbollah has much bigger tunnel system under Lebanon than Hamas ever dreamed of, more soldiers and more weapons. It has survived previous attempts to kill off its leadership. There was no point in staying in Syria if Assad's forces wouldn't fight. The thing that would destroy Hezbollah, really, is the anger of the Lebanese themselves. So it's playing dead for the time being. Israel was able to take a victory lap over the pagers and go back to Gaza. Hezbollah has time to rebuild its reputation and develop new plans, and now it can do that under radar.

ConsiderationBig540

Because Israel is far more powerful than Hezbollah, while at the same time, Israel thought Hezbollah was a top threat to it. So Israel, over the last 20 years focused significant effort in becoming a Hezbollah destroying machine. 

You have to understand what Israel is does especially in intelligence is unmatched in the world, I mean even USA and Russia can't hold a candle to it. October 7 was rather shocking in this regard, since it was such a massive intelligence failure. The pager attack was more "classic Israel".

c9joe

Hezbollah was essentially decapitated between the pager attack and the subsequent bombing that killed their leader, there wasn't a whole lot left of their command structure.

icenoid

Lets see if I understand .. pls correct me.. 

Lebanon and Syria wanted the Iranian proxy out.  they were bad for Lebanon and Syria.  Hezbollah had everyone in Lebanon by the balls.    

the reason Isr was so successful was that average Lebanese were supplying very accurate info.   

Hez controlled the airports and more, basically everything.   Everyone was sick of them.  They fired rockets into Isr non stop Since 10.7.  Effectively dragging Leb into a war with Isr.  

Hez was loyal to the Iranians and supported the Shiits over everyone else.   

Hez has been blamed for the port explosion, and the robbing of Lebanons banking system.  

Many Lebanese were eager to see Hez go, even if it meant working with ISR.  

Pagers were a long term Israeli Intelligence project.  
Maybe just ISR doing GODs work.  

HTS was locked into battles with Hez who was obliterated by ISR pagers/ precision strikes.  

Then HTS takes over Syria removing more Iranian proxies.   

Fascinating saga

Former-Wedding-9450

A few conflation of events.

1) Iran revealed itself not to be the big bad, but completely cowardly and impotent. They didn’t back hamas or Hezbollah in the war, and the largest ballistic missile attack in history was a dud. All they accomplished was making threatening statements on Twitter while executing dissenters and women not covering their hair.

2) Israel’s masterful beeper attack. Several years of planning, I still can’t believe they pulled that off. Anyone not praising that attack is a Jew hating, Lebanese hating terrorist supporter. 

3) Al Jaraa overthrowing Assad and also fighting Hezbollah. 

Between these three events, Hezbollah was neutered (that joke will never get old) their supply chain through Syria was gutted, and that enabled Lebanon to act like a functioning country and finally get rid of them acting like a para-military group- in collaboration with Israel no less.

It’s incredible, isn’t it? Who would’ve predicted such a turn of events?

I mean Israel just cooked them blew up all their top leaders and also destroyed much of their missile launching capabilities and the Lebanese government sees an opportunity to get rid of hezbollah and they are so far taking it

Lumpy-Cost398

Interesting post, and I think you're asking the right questions, but I’d push back on the idea that Hezbollah has crumbled. What’s happened is more of a strategic recalibration than an outright collapse.

Hezbollah didn’t enter this war at full capacity, and that was likely by design. Their role in Lebanon is very different from Hamas in Gaza, they operate in a delicate balance with the Lebanese state, have political seats, and maintain influence across Shi’a communities. That means they can’t just burn the whole house down without risking their own legitimacy and survival.

The targeted killings of senior figures did hurt, especially those with years of experience in Syria and operational coordination, but Hezbollah has always been structured to be resilient to decapitation. What we’ve seen instead is a recalculated pullback. They’ve sustained low-intensity conflict on the border, tying down Israeli divisions, without triggering a full-scale war that would devastate Lebanon.

As for Syria, Hezbollah’s position there has been eroding for a while. HTS gains and victory have had more to do with shifting dynamics in Idlib and Turkish-Russian-Iranian realignments than with some sudden Hezbollah collapse.

So no, I don’t think Hezbollah is basically destroyed. I think they’re playing the long game, avoiding full escalation for now, and preserving their assets for a future confrontation on their own terms. The situation is fluid, and the quieter they go, the more we should wonder what they’re preparing for.

No-Baker-2864

I don't know that this is much of a choice. This is what happens to the Hezbollah arsenal these days:

https://x.com/YehoshuaYosi/status/1941092672237941053

Rearming will cost billions that they don't have. Most of their budget comes from Iran, but Iran has its own problems now. Also, I don't know that Iran is satisfied with the results of keeping a proxy in Lebanon. Money sent to Hezbollah and used to buy rockets will most likely go up in flames by an Israeli airstrike.

Going civil and trying to take over the state seems like the only choice.

unruly_mattress

Man, every Reddit prediction I saw about these conflicts was wrong. 

“Urban warfare against Hamas will result in untenable mass casualties for Israel”

“Hezbollah will rout Israel like 2006”

This place is wishcast central.

ABlackEngineer

If Hezbollah is significantly weakened and Israel succeeds in reaching a border and security agreement with both Lebanon and even Syria, it would mark the first time Israel has secured peace with all its neighbors and eliminated all conventional military threats. It would also leave the Palestinians completely isolated and without leverage.

aWhiteWildLion

So Hezbollah admits defeat to Israel. Great news for the whole region including Lebanon

Juniper2324

Hezbollah weighs scaling back it's arsenal after having its ass handed to them by Israel.

wanderingzac

Following a devastating war with Israel, and major continual financial and military pressure, sources suggest Hezbollah might be considering disarming to some unknown degree.

When the cease fire was signed between Israel to Hezbollah and Lebanon, many (Even on this platform) were justifiably skeptical. Is it an Israeli victory, or yet another 1701-case agreement to be ignored by Hezbollah, on the way to the next war?

So far, it seems that the answer has been a resounding Israeli victory. With Hezbollah still being attacked and chased down daily, by both the IDF and somewhat by Lebanon's military forces, without responding back at all. While their economic and arms situation also seems to be deteriorating daily, due to both Assad's defeat in Syria and Iran's struggles after the 12 days war.

NotSoSaneExile

They are “weighing” whether they should scale back their arsenal in much the way I have been weighing whether or not I should marry Adria Arjona.

jrgkgb

Hopefully someone with more specific knowledge than I chimes in but it has a lot to do with Hezbollah being an extremely sophisticated and well armed, well trained group. They aren't the "sandals and AKs" insurgents of Iraq or Afghanistan; they have high quality training and support from Iran and even Russia (Hezbollah sent forces to be trained by Russians in Syria and get combat experience in that war).

At Wadi Saluki, Hezbollah was well equipped with Sagger and Kornet ATGMs in defensive positions. It was really good defensive terrain being a valley surrounded by high ground that Hezbollah was dug into.

The plan called for Israeli infantry to clear the high ground of threats so armor could move into the valley. They were to have artillery support. What happened was that Israeli infantry was ineffective at clearing the high ground and artillery was hesitant to fire on the enemy because of the risk of friendly fire. The infantry, armor and artillery all lost cohesion with the infantry unable to support the tanks, the tanks not knowing where the infantry was and taking heavy ATGM fire, and the artillery unwilling to fire without knowing the positions of friendly forces.

Hezbollah was well dug in and fanatical in their willingness to fight, and also well equipped and trained. As sophisticated as Hamas has proven themselves to be Hezbollah is so much more sophisticated that in at least one engagement in 2006 IDF thought they'd gotten into a friendly fire exchange with Israeli special forces. 

Hezbollah had also dug tunnels throughout the operational area that enabled them to evade initial sweeps and then reoccupy positions thought cleared.

The response from Israel post-war was to improve interoperability between arms and invest in active protection systems for armor. Their most recent conflict was heavily informed by the 2006 experience with Israel preferring an indirect opening move with the pager affair and specifically targeting Hezbollah missile and rocket caches before they could be employed.

proquo

There is a roughly 80 page report on the Israeli failure that the Americans published at Leavenworth. It’s kind of the only source I have on the issue but here’s a few points worth considering:
1. Politics: Israeli air strikes against Lebanese civilians received global condemnation and pressure.
2. Air power: the IDF thought air power would be more decisive than it was (which we have seen before).
3. Command: ground operations were led by an IAF officer iirc and his orders were a goobledigook of corporate newspeak that lower commands literally did not understand.
4. Hostages: IDF troops captured by Hezbollah limited offensive options and intensity in Lebanon (whereas in 2024 the IDF was able to go all in against Hezbollah). Finally,
5. Poor training: IDF forces were basically occupation troops lacking in field craft and tactical training. They were not able to adapt to complex Hezbollah fortifications and tactics.

In sum, Israel ineffectively bashed against Lebanon and incurred heavy losses for no gains and lots of political losses. However, it does seem obvious that IDF learned from this defeat. If memory is right they lost less men in their border fights and invasion of Lebanon going back to October 8 2023 than they lost in a month in the summer of 2006, while mortally wounding Hezbollah.

Damo_Banks

I don't know if I'd go as far as to consider it a 'failure', as that is a matter dependent upon the political objectives of the conflict, but there are no doubts that things did not go as well as planned and that there were individual failings within the campaign. One big issue was that the Israelis went into the fight underestimating Hesbullah (which itself had changed doctrine since the previous notable conflict in 2000). However, once the Israelis figured out that they were actually a pretty reasonably equipped and motivated force, they became far more circumspect. The last couple of days of the conflict were far more successful for Israel than the initial punch in the face they received in the early days. In fairness, not the first time Israel adapted on the fly.

u/Damo_Banks  proposes five points, all of which are reasonably fair though I would tweak a couple of them.The Leavenworth document he refers to is probably this one. [https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf)

With respect to item 3, this document is fairly excoriating. [https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA515328.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA515328.pdf)

*"SOD (systemic operational design) theory was greatly influenced by the writings of the French postmodern philosophers, specifically Gilles Deleuze (1925–1995) and Felix Guattari (1930–1992) and, to a lesser extent, Jean-Francois Lyotard (1924–1998), Jean Baudrillard (1929–2007), and Paul Virilio (b. 1932). \[...\] After several alterations and revisions, the new IDF doctrine was endorsed by Air Force lieutenant general and chief of the defense staff Dan Halutz in April 2006. Reportedly, even General Halutz did not understand the new doctrine that he signed.* 

*\[...\]*

*During the Lebanon conflict in July 2006, the major problem the IDF had with SOD was the new terminology and methodology. It was questionable whether the majority of IDF officers could grasp a design that Naveh proclaimed was “not easy to understand . . . because \[it is\] not intended for ordinary mortals.” Many officers found the entire SOD concept elitist. Other officers could not understand why the old system of simple orders and terminology was replaced by one that few could understand. For example, new terms such as strategic directive, strategic purpose, system boundary, operational boundaries, campaign organizing theme, and rival system rationale were overused in place of traditional military terms. Units were ordered to “render the enemy incoherent,” make the enemy feel “distress” or “chased down,” or “achieve standoff domination of the theatre.” The new vocabulary was heavily drawn from French postmodern philosophy, literary theory, architecture, and psychology. Because of its cryptic character, it is hardly surprising that not every officer in the IDF had the time or inclination to study this philosophy"*

This SOD, which comes under "Effects based operations" is what led to the doctrine which emphasised air attacks, which of course weren't as successful as proponents had advertised as per Damo's Item 2.

The_Chieftain_WG

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